“Don't cross a river if it is on average four feet deep”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Simplified Meaning:
Imagine you need to cross a river, but you only know the average depth. This average depth sounds safe, but it can be misleading because the actual depth can vary in different spots. Some parts might be shallow, while others could be dangerously deep. You could get into trouble if you only think about the average and not the specific details. For example, think about buying a house. The average price might seem affordable, but some houses in that range could be in poor condition or in less desirable areas. If you only consider the average price, you might end up with a house that has costly repairs or isn't in a good neighborhood. The idea is to be cautious and pay attention to the details, not just overall averages. When making important decisions, whether it's crossing a river or buying a house, understanding the full picture helps you avoid risks and make safer choices. Always look deeper than just the surface numbers or general information to make the best decision for your situation.