"اثر فریب خوردن از تصادفی بودن هم به پیش بینی کنندگان و هم به کسانی که توسط پیش بینی های آنها گمراه شده اند مربوط می شود"

Simplified Meaning:

Sometimes, people think they can predict what's going to happen in the future, like weather forecasters or stock market analysts. But often, their guesses are just lucky or unlucky and not really based on skill. Imagine someone guessing the weather every day. If they get it right a few times, people might start believing they’re really good at it, even if they were just lucky. This can mislead both the person making the predictions and the people who listen to them. The forecaster might mistakenly think they have special skills, and the followers might believe and act on their predictions without questioning them. For instance, if a stock market analyst predicts a company's share price will rise and it does by chance, people might invest their money based on that lucky guess, risking their savings. It's important to remember that luck can sometimes look like skill. By being aware of this, people can make better decisions. Instead of blindly following predictions, they should look for solid evidence and consider the possibility of random chance.