“The fooled-by-randomness effect applies to both the forecasters and those misled by their forecasts”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Simplified Meaning:
Sometimes, people predict things that will happen in the future, but these predictions can be wrong just by chance. The people making the predictions and those believing in them can both be tricked by this randomness.
Related tags
Behavioral economics Cognitive bias Decision making Forecasting Misinterpretation Probability Randomness StatisticsFEATURED QUOTES